Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.